Zhang Xiaofeng: Forecast of new retail market trends after five years
On March 29th, at the 11th Industry Conference, Mr. Zhang Xiaofeng, a senior director of Kearney, a well-known international consulting company, made a wonderful sharing with the theme of “Five Trends in New Retailâ€.
New retail means that online resources integrate offline resources, enable omni-channel consumer interaction, track consumer interactions, and use consumer behavior data to analyze and guide secondary marketing. The core of online and offline convergence trends is one of the most important trends in retail development in the next five years, and multiple factors promote the development of convergence trends.
What is the forecast for the new retail market after five years?
As the overall growth rate of e-commerce development slows down, traffic begins to become saturated and costs are getting higher and higher, and e-commerce companies need to develop offline markets. At the same time, offline business and department store operations are difficult, and it is necessary to increase revenue through exploration of digital transformation. Income growth and demographic changes have driven consumption upgrades and laid the foundation for demand for new formats. Taking 2017 as the starting point for 2022 as the expectation, the new retail market will be judged and predicted five years later.
Mobile payments are highly popular, and consumer omnichannel behavior is visualized . Ali is an offline smart shop, trying to pass the offline store. When the user just enters the store, the video system in the store can identify the identity of the consumer, and quickly call out the user's purchase record in Ali, and quickly analyze the user's preferences. , to create a user portrait, so that the clerk can more accurately recommend more suitable products for consumers, and guide consumption. At the same time, the online purchase behavior data synchronization line, open online and offline, when the user logs into Ali Tmall, Taobao flagship store, directional push each user's favorite goods, to achieve the visualization of the entire purchase behavior.
The rise of online social e-commerce, offline experiential consumer demand is strong. Nowadays, there are more and more social channels for consumers to accept information channels such as WeChat and live friends. The influence of their consumption is not necessarily star effect or TV commercial. It may be a KOL, or a network red, scattered traffic portal. Diverse operating mode, centralized trading is difficult. Promoting social e-commerce has sprung up, and corporate marketing is increasingly valued. At the same time, offline experiential consumer demand is strong, and experiential consumption and social consumer demand are broad and strong.
Real-time data improves the efficiency of physical channels, and the dealer system will not be replaced. With the development of e-commerce, many small brands and new brands have risen rapidly, channel thresholds have been lowered, online consumption has become more niche, and small and beautiful brands targeting segmentation groups have expanded their living space by relying on platforms. Consumers’ big data provides B2C products. R&D foundation and precise sales channels for specific groups of people. All aspects of the channel supply chain are online, real-time data enhances the efficiency of the physical channel, and the digital supply chain is one of the themes of AJ's expansion in physical retail; and then value-added services such as derivative finance. The dealer system will not be replaced, but will greatly embrace the data, docking digital terminals, invoicing and logistics information in real-time online, and efficiency. The dealers survived the fittest during the digital upgrade process.
The development direction of several major Internet giants in the future. Ali has become the largest retail data center and data system provider. The method of realizing the payment will be to charge the data service fee to the brand, to collect the system usage fee from the retailer and the channel provider, and to provide value-added services such as advertising and supply chain finance. Jingdong exports its retail infrastructure and becomes an important supply chain system service provider. It exports the supply chain data management system and logistics capabilities to integrate the investment chain of investors and the supply chain of social e-commerce such as micro-business. Tencent realizes social traffic through retail scenarios and does not directly participate in retail operations. Tencent does not have the core competence of retail operations. Its strategic intention is to seize offline payment scenarios, broaden the application of WeChat applets, and explore the realization of social traffic.
Retail market scenario under the infiltration of Internet giants
In the future, the two major Internet giants, Ali and Jingdong, have begun to control and influence offline retail channels, and their integration capabilities are expected to be further strengthened. Digital connectivity has become the internal driving force of channel integration. Therefore, it is expected that the influence of Internet head enterprises in omni-channel retail will continue to expand; Ali Jingdong will adopt a cooperative approach to expand, and the growth rate of “investment participation†will be higher than “ Holding" section.
Alibaba is upgrading from a retail platform to a data enabling platform, so it is actively expanding its ecosystem across channels and tracks to expand its data collection and application scenarios. Based on the positioning of retailers, Jingdong continues to enrich its online and offline retail formats; JD.com is also trying to open up retail infrastructure such as logistics to build a platform business.
The retail market is forming two systems centered on Ali and Jingteng. The data is linked to the physical retail sector. The strategic intention of ATJ is digital ecological expansion; equity investment is a means rather than an end. ATJ's digital retail ecosystem will include multiple systems, which will be realized through the diversification of services for the drainage of physical stores. The intelligent commodity system will affect the way the brand's products enter the retail terminal, and compete for the brand's capabilities. The focus is on impact, especially in the strong integration of new retail channels.
Whether they are Ali or Jingdong, when they build new retail, they start from three aspects. First, the passenger flow optimization system uses the marketing system to attract users and push products to users. The second is the intelligent commodity system, which understands the behavior of consumers through big data, guides sales, and uses data to guide product development to realize the reverse deduction from consumers to products. The third is to build a supply chain system.
What can brand owners do in the face of new retail?
In the online market of 2022, Tmall and JD will continue to be the largest sales platforms. Most of the maternal and child vertical platforms have not been able to achieve significant differentiation with Tmall Jingdong. The homogenization competition is serious and the development space is squeezed. The development of social e-commerce/micro-business is beneficial, and the social platform is used as a traffic portal, which provides a favorable solution for e-commerce to reduce the cost of drainage. Acquaintances and KOLs have higher trust and higher consumption conversion rates. They have touched a large number of consumers in the third-tier cities and below through WeChat and other platforms, and have revitalized the online consumer market in low-tier cities. The products are relatively low-end and have lower pricing. In order to cater to the consumption needs of low-tier cities, the platform provides low-priced products of small brands to maintain low-price advantages and low gross profit.
The biggest difficulty in the future vertical maternal and child e-commerce channel is traffic. Because today's traffic costs are very high, it is very difficult for new e-commerce platforms to attract new traffic, but there are some social platforms with their own traffic like baby trees and hot moms, they will still get up. In the future, offline stores will be very intelligent. Brands are actively exploring offline offline integration models, creating smart retail applications through the store to create new retail applications and reach consumers.
At the same time, this requires more accurate consumer understanding and more precise brand positioning in terms of brand power. For the construction of niche brands, digital capabilities must have big data systems and data analysis capabilities as well as precision marketing capabilities. In terms of operations, establish its own CRM membership system, build a brand-compliant online and offline integration model, and use third parties to achieve new retail upgrades.
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