Investment points Home sector: Waiting for the spring market performance: Year-to-date, the furniture sector (Shenwan classification) has fallen by 43.38%, of which the sharp decline is concentrated in the single third quarter. On November 2, the index point fell by 41.7% from the beginning of June. .
Performance summary: 2018Q1-3, 29 home furnishing companies realized a total operating income of 69.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%; net profit of the home fell by 6.479 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3%. Looking at the quarter, the revenue growth rate of the 2018Q1/Q2/Q3 home sector was 27.2%/21.4%/20.5%, and the net profit growth rate of the mothers was -3.9%/11%/16.2%, respectively. Slow down, the profit side is further restored than Q2.
Customized, software, finished products, tooling four major sections: sometimes the weather is sometimes sunny.
1) Customized segment: The overall profit is better than the income. Q3's single-quarter revenue growth rate is divided, and the high base, real estate and passenger flow differentiation coexist. The first- and second-tier cities in the retail sector have entered the competitive market for stocks; the channel-side traffic portals are diversified, and leading companies keep the channel sinking.
2) Software sector: The overall performance has clearly recovered, the profit repair logic has been fulfilled as scheduled, and the industry structure has been integrated. In the short-term, the cost-side pressure release + external exchange rate depreciation will provide rich profit elasticity. In the long run, the influence of soft-furnished home improvement and storage space will be small, and the logic of future extension/extension channel will be smoother.
3) Finished product segment: The income of leading enterprises is good, the industry pattern is clear, and some of the target channel dividends are waiting to be released. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of the finished home price belt and channel sinking.
4) Tooling sector: The income in the third quarter was against the trend and the big market was bred. The performance of mainstream tooling companies is better than the overall performance of the home industry, while the scale effect drives profitability, and the profit growth rate is higher than the income growth rate. We believe that the market share of the home market will shift to the engineering channel, and the big market is expected to breed a big leader. It is recommended to pay attention to the tooling and home furnishing enterprise with excellent customer structure and customer viscosity.
Packaging and printing sector: Inflection point has been noticed, focusing on the performance of the leading market: Since the beginning of the year, the Shenwan second-level sub-block packaging printing sector has fallen by 43.12%. Although the rebound and subsequent consolidation in February, the sector index has fallen sharply since June.
Performance summary: 2018Q1-3, the packaging and printing sector achieved a total operating income of 65.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. In terms of quarterly, the revenue growth rate of the 2018Q1/Q2/Q3 packaging segment was 22.5%/10.6%/13.2%, and the net profit growth rate of the mothers was -5.7%/22.3%/4.5%, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, the profit side slowed down compared to Q2.
The turning point of profitability has already emerged, and the era of big packaging will come. Downstream customers in the packaging industry are showing a multi-polar trend. Tobacco and alcohol, consumer electronics, cosmetics, pharmaceutical packaging, etc. are gradually building a high-end packaging demand source. The pattern of the paper packaging industry is scattered. Compared with the developed countries, the concentration of paper packaging in China has increased. In addition, the gradual smoothing of the negative raw material factors in the upstream industry is expected to bring a profit turning point drive to the packaging industry. Recommended high-end packaging leader Yutong Technology, large packaging + big health two-wheel drive leading Jinjia shares (002191, shares it).
Papermaking sector: Focus on the cost of tissue paper inflection point Market performance: Since the beginning of the year, the Shenwan second-level sub-block papermaking sector has fallen by a total of 34.76%. The downturn in the market and the cyclical downturn in the paper industry cycle are the core reasons for the pressure on the paper plate market.
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