Paper industry: paper prices have risen
[ppzhan summary] Although the sector's gains have been flat or outperformed in the past few weeks, there is still a certain premium risk in the relative market. We maintain a neutral rating for the industry. The price of paper was basically flat this week, while the price of pulp continued to climb. At present, paper prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but the relationship between supply and demand has not been fundamentally improved, and raw materials have regained momentum. It is expected that enterprises will experience a period of downturn.
This week, the papermaking sector outperformed the broader market: the papermaking sector rose 2.41% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.21%, and the sector outperformed the broader market by 1.2 percentage points. The sector has weakened since the end of 2011 and has recently rebounded following the broader market. The cyclical characteristics are obvious. Although the sector's gains have been flat or outperformed in the past few weeks, there is still a certain premium risk in the relative market. We maintain a neutral rating for the industry.
Paper prices were flat and pulp prices rose: paper prices were basically flat this week, while pulp prices continued to climb.
Research information update: The downstream printing factory has low acceptance of paper price adjustment. After the pilot company's festival, the paper price was raised by 100-200 yuan/ton, and some dealers also raised the paper price. We further understand that under the cost pressure of rising pulp prices, manufacturers may raise prices further, but due to weak downstream demand, the acceptance of manufacturers' price increases is not high. At present, the price of pulp continues to rise, but due to the impact of weak demand, the pressure on the cost of paper mills is greater.
Imports of waste paper declined, and market shipments were slower: Imports of waste paper fell in January, mainly due to the increase in waste paper prices, manufacturers basically stopped large-scale purchases; dealers inventories were slightly replenished, manufacturers fixed sales, market shipments Slower.
2011 profit bottoming, the first quarter is expected to fall further: in the first quarter of 2012, the price of paper fell year-on-year. Although the market has basically stabilized, but the demand has not yet warmed up, it is expected that the market rebound will not be strong, and the industry sales growth rate due to destocking pressure Will slow down. It is estimated that the first quarter revenue will decrease by 17.47%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.97%, a gross profit margin of 11.28% and a profit margin of 4.12%.
Companies with outstanding industrial chain advantages and better cash flow are worthy of attention: At present, paper prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but the relationship between supply and demand has not been fundamentally improved, and raw materials have rebounded. It is expected that enterprises will experience a period of downturn. Under this circumstance, we still believe that the advantages of the industrial chain are outstanding, the paper structure is good, and the companies with abundant cash flow are worthy of attention. Representative enterprises include Sun Paper (002078), Bohui Paper (600966), Chenming Paper. Industry (000488), Yueyang Lin Paper (600963).
Risk warning: 1. The price of raw materials is rising; 2. The new capacity is intensively placed.
This week, the papermaking sector outperformed the broader market: the papermaking sector rose 2.41% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.21%, and the sector outperformed the broader market by 1.2 percentage points. The sector has weakened since the end of 2011 and has recently rebounded following the broader market. The cyclical characteristics are obvious. Although the sector's gains have been flat or outperformed in the past few weeks, there is still a certain premium risk in the relative market. We maintain a neutral rating for the industry.
Paper prices were flat and pulp prices rose: paper prices were basically flat this week, while pulp prices continued to climb.
Research information update: The downstream printing factory has low acceptance of paper price adjustment. After the pilot company's festival, the paper price was raised by 100-200 yuan/ton, and some dealers also raised the paper price. We further understand that under the cost pressure of rising pulp prices, manufacturers may raise prices further, but due to weak downstream demand, the acceptance of manufacturers' price increases is not high. At present, the price of pulp continues to rise, but due to the impact of weak demand, the pressure on the cost of paper mills is greater.
Imports of waste paper declined, and market shipments were slower: Imports of waste paper fell in January, mainly due to the increase in waste paper prices, manufacturers basically stopped large-scale purchases; dealers inventories were slightly replenished, manufacturers fixed sales, market shipments Slower.
2011 profit bottoming, the first quarter is expected to fall further: in the first quarter of 2012, the price of paper fell year-on-year. Although the market has basically stabilized, but the demand has not yet warmed up, it is expected that the market rebound will not be strong, and the industry sales growth rate due to destocking pressure Will slow down. It is estimated that the first quarter revenue will decrease by 17.47%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.97%, a gross profit margin of 11.28% and a profit margin of 4.12%.
Companies with outstanding industrial chain advantages and better cash flow are worthy of attention: At present, paper prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but the relationship between supply and demand has not been fundamentally improved, and raw materials have rebounded. It is expected that enterprises will experience a period of downturn. Under this circumstance, we still believe that the advantages of the industrial chain are outstanding, the paper structure is good, and the companies with abundant cash flow are worthy of attention. Representative enterprises include Sun Paper (002078), Bohui Paper (600966), Chenming Paper. Industry (000488), Yueyang Lin Paper (600963).
Risk warning: 1. The price of raw materials is rising; 2. The new capacity is intensively placed.
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