Analysis of the impact of the continued rise in pulp prices

It is reported that the international pulp price has maintained a rising trend since the second quarter of 2009. From the beginning of 2010 to mid-March, the price of pulp has soared. The domestic pulp price will rise by 700 on March 9 and 10 respectively. ~1000 yuan / ton, an increase of up to 10% to 15%, the current domestic pulp price level has exceeded the historical high value of 2008, the sharp increase in pulp prices has brought many aspects of the paper industry.

Xiong Xiaokun, a light industry researcher at China Investment Consulting, believes that the impact of rising pulp prices on the paper industry is also a direct impact on the raw material procurement costs of paper companies, greatly reducing the profitability of paper companies. However, standing on the rising point of the pulp industry from the perspective of the entire paper industry, it will find that it also has some positive significance.

Xiong Xiaokun pointed out that the procurement cost of pulp accounts for about 65% of the total production cost of papermaking enterprises. The increase in pulp prices will be directly transmitted to various paper products produced by paper enterprises. The rise in paper prices will certainly inhibit some market demand, and the current The increase in pulp prices is about 1.5 times the increase in paper prices. The combination of these two factors has caused the profit margin of paper enterprises to be greatly squeezed. The profitability of the domestic paper industry in the first half of the year is not optimistic.

Xiong Xiaokun further pointed out that the sharp rise in pulp prices also has some positive effects. On the one hand, the rising price of pulp can make some of the backward production capacity automatically withdraw from the industry under the regulation of the market, reducing the pressure of overcapacity in the paper industry and the pressure of environmental protection. On the other hand, the continued surge in pulp prices has increased the incentives for domestic paper companies to diversify their raw material procurement channels. This will help change the domestic paper industry's raw material sources too biased towards a few countries and regions, and improve the domestic paper industry's risk resistance. Ability. Later, the rise in pulp prices will prompt some companies to improve their product mix, produce more high value-added paper products, and enhance their profitability, which will promote the competitiveness of the entire paper industry.

Xiong Xiaokun emphasized that the sharp increase in the price of this round of pulp has greatly enhanced the competitiveness of a group of paper-making enterprises with a high proportion of homemade pulp, and such enterprises such as Chenming Paper, Yueyang Paper and Bohui Paper are basically forests. The enterprises with better implementation of the pulp and paper integration project will greatly stimulate other paper enterprises to accelerate the implementation of forestry and paper integration projects. The large-scale implementation of forestry-paper integration will improve the overall dependence on imports of raw materials in the paper industry and enhance the international competitiveness of the domestic paper industry.

The “2010-2015 China Paper Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report” issued by CIC Consultant also pointed out that paper raw materials will be more and more biased towards wood resources, and wood is a resource product, along with the world forest area. The gradual reduction and the amount of harvesting are increasingly affected by the concept of social environmental protection and low carbon. The prices of wood and commercial pulp will continue to rise in the long run. Domestic paper companies should take precautions and strive to reduce the disadvantages caused by rising pulp prices. influences.

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