This is an era full of opportunities and challenges. Especially with the rapid changes in technology, the shape of publications and the interest of readers are constantly changing. Every wise publisher will pay close attention to this trend and grasp the initiative to seize the initiative. opportunity. At present, publishers want to understand more than just the changes in the following year or two. They tend to be the major trends after ten years and twenty years. What exactly happened to the publication at that time? We invited four authoritative people, Jesse Berst, Tim Bray, Jakob Nielsen, and Rick Smolan, to make a big prediction for the future. This prediction is based on 10 classic issues.
Berst Bray Nielsen Smolan
E-book sales exceed print edition 20152010 Maybe later 2010 2010 2015
Popularize Broadband Internet Access Service 2012 2008 2009 2015
Online subscription income exceeds print publication subscription revenue 2015 may not be 2008 2010 at all
English is no longer the dominant language on the Internet 2007 2005 2001 Uncertain final Atex J11 eliminated 2015 2003 2005 2005
Micropaynent payment system gains market recognition 2008 Maybe tomorrow, maybe never 2003 2015
Fully digitized daily newspaper 2015 2004 2015 2015
The amount of online retail sales of books over traditional bookstores will never never be 2020
The first e-took into the New York Times bestseller list 2007 2005 2003 2015
Flat-pattel player wins CRT player 2003 2005 2004 2005
First, when the sales of e-books surpass the printed books Although there are still many uncertainties about the market environment of electronic publications, four people are optimistic about the long-term development of electronic media. Beerst, Nielsen, and Smolan think that this deadline is 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively, but Tim Bray's viewpoint is different. He believes that the book incorporates a variety of technologies, each of which has its own advantages and Insufficient, no one can say that one form of publication is entirely unsuccessful to another, so Bray is skeptical about whether e-books will beat traditional printed books. He believes that if it does, the deadline will not be earlier than in 2010. Perhaps this situation will not happen at all.
Second, when will broadband access to the United States be as common as the use of telephones?
Four people unanimously affirmed the arrival of this day. Tim Bray estimates that it will be achieved in 2008. Jakob Nielsen estimates that in 2009, JESSE Berst and Rick Smloan are relatively conservative, Berst believes that in 2012, Smloan thinks it will be in 2015.
Third, when does the income of online subscription exceed the income of print publications?
Four people are unanimously convinced that the number of subscriptions to online publications will greatly increase, because many of the information will be delivered online and online subscriptions will be delivered more quickly. As Tim Bray said, many people are now accustomed to getting relevant technical information from the Internet. The facts also prove that a lot of information is suitable for the spread of the Internet, but at the same time Bray pointed out that for many popular recreational magazines, readers still prefer the printing format. Will be keen on the online version.
4. When English is no longer the dominant language on the Internet If four authoritative prophecies are correct, this day will not be far behind. Three of the four experts believe that there will be more non-English-language websites than English-language websites within seven years. Jakob Nielsen has the strongest view. He thinks that this pattern will be formed next year. Tim Bray and Jesse Berst are relatively conservative. Berst believes that there will be a big increase in Chinese websites. Bray thinks that in the future new websites, Latin America, Slavic regions in India and Eastern Europe will account for a large proportion.
5. When will the publisher no longer need the final Atex J11?
Atex's proprietary J11 system was once the choice of many newspaper publishers, and currently there are still 50 to 75 sites using this system. When the last publisher abandoned the system, it marked the end of a newspaper and publishing technology.
6. When will a micropaymet payment system win market acceptance?
Micropaymet is a payment system for buying online goods and services. Surprisingly, four authorities are extremely optimistic about this system. Three of them expect this system to be supported by most markets in 2008. However, Tim Bray still has doubts. He believes that even if the structural and policy factors are ignored, it is extremely difficult to solve the problems in this system and to achieve reliability and effectiveness in cash transactions. At one point, the Micropaymet system cannot win the market.
7. When did the first daily newspaper, which ranked in the Top 20 in the United States, turn to digital publishing?
Whether or not “paperless newspapers†will appear is a problem that is currently being widely discussed. Three of the four people this time think that the top US Times will replace digital printing with print publishing, but this day will not be too close. All three think it will not be earlier than 2015. Tim Bray's answer to this question is still different, although he believes that newspaper publishing will not abandon the print model, but he believes that in 2004, there will be the top 20 newspapers in the United States appear completely in digital form.
8. When will online retail sales exceed traditional retail sales?
Four people agreed that the traditional store retail format will continue. Berst, Bray, and Nielsen all believe that online retail sales will not exceed traditional stores. Smolan's attitude is optimistic, but he believes this will not happen before 2020. year. In addition, several of them also questioned this issue. Just as Jesse Berst pointed out, online retailing and retailing both tend to complement each Other. People often see information about a certain product on the Internet. Then go to the shop to purchase, in this case it is not meaningful to split the two forms.
9. When did the first e-book hit the New York Times bestseller list?
With regard to the arrival of this situation, the four authorities have no doubt about it. As long as the New York Times allows e-books to compete, the only thing worth discussing is time. Jakob Nielsen estimates that it will be achieved in 2003 and the other three are relatively conservative. Berst estimates that in 2007, Bray estimated that in 2005, Smolan estimated that in 2015.
10. When does the flat-panet playback device exceed the CRT playback device?
The Flat-Panel display device has been around for several years, but due to the high price and sophisticated production process it has failed to dominate the market. From the answers of four people, they think that VW will be able to withstand Flat within five years. -Panel display device.